The total worldwide NGV fleet is now nearly 10 million vehicles, when including 3-wheelers and off road vehicles, and around 9.2 million when only counting cars, trucks and buses. NGVA Europe has together with other regional associations and the IANGV estimated that the worldwide NGV fleets could reach 50 million vehicles by 2020, and between 100 and 200 million by 2030 (corresponding with 200.000 - 400.000 million normal cubic metres of gas which is equivalent to 200.000-400.000 million litres of diesel!).
Together with estimated potential biomethane shares this gives the following worldwide outlook:
|Number of NGVs
|Total fuel sales
(in 109 Nm3)
Europe at the moment has a 10% share of the global volume of NGVs, but 36% of the global volume of all vehicles. Although the total car market growth will be quicker in the third world than in Europe it is likely that the still fairly low NGV market share in Europe will pick up significantly.
In total there are presently around 310 million cars, trucks and buses within all western and eastern European countries (to be compared with 850 million vehicles worldwide). 15 million NGVs in Europe by 2020, and 30 million around 2030 could be within reach. These indications do not, however, represent any agreed forecast, but can be considered as an achievable target when looking at the significant NGV Market Growth during the last five years.
Giving a detailed European forecast for the NGV development is a challenging task as different NGV Success Stories in Europe also allocate. The market development will always be influenced by unpredictable factors like:
fluctuations of energy prices
recession, or booming economy
technological paradigm shifts
radical political decisions influencing the relative attractiveness of different vehicle concepts
investments concerning gas supply, refuelling infrastructure, and production capacity (components and vehicles)
Here one must assume that forecasts made will form a basis for required investments, rather than the other way round - market expansion dependent upon investments made. In reality the truth lies somewhere in between.
NGVA Europe aims to provide a more detailed market growth outlook for the next year, a projection for the next 5 years, as well as a vision for the years 2020 and 2030 and will make a study on this during the next months.
NGVA Europe... for sustainable mobility